298 Kalshi and Polymarket contracts in one place. Live implied probability, price history, volume, the same question priced on both exchanges. Built for traders who need data, not betting advice.
Updated 9:03 PM ET, Oct 11 · prices refresh four times daily
YES has moved 79.0 percentage points since the archive started. Research signal only, not trading advice.
See all biggest movers →The market for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" on Polymarket continues to be a behemoth, with over $73 million in volume at a price of 16 cents per share. This has sparked speculation about the likelihood of such an event, and what implications it might have on global politics.
While some might view this market as sensational or speculative, it's worth considering the underlying forces driving these bets. The fact that this is one of the most actively traded markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket suggests a deep-seated concern about the escalating tensions between the US and Iran.
It's also worth noting the contrast with some of the other high-volume markets, such as "Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?" or "Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?", which are largely driven by novelty or entertainment value. These longshots have garnered significant attention, but their prices and volumes should be viewed in context.
| Market | Category | YES | Volume | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | world | 16¢ | $73,445,990 | +1.0pp |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | culture | 1¢ | $66,459,046 | +0.0pp |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | politics | 1¢ | $54,891,543 | · |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $54,439,735 | · |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $52,900,629 | +0.9pp |
| Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $50,887,663 | · |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $48,912,620 | · |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | politics | 1¢ | $44,881,903 | · |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $44,672,670 | · |
| Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $44,434,498 | · |
25 football and tennis matches with a live Yes price per result. The next 6 kickoffs are below; the full board, grouped by competition, is on the sports page.
Three contracts from today's book that reward a second look. Volume, edge, or resolution timing makes them sharper than average.
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