Understand prediction markets from the ground up
Practical explainers on Kalshi, Polymarket, implied probability, NOAA weather signals, and how to read the data on this site. Evergreen reference material, no fluff.
How prediction market prices mean probability: a no-jargon explainer
A plain-language guide to reading a prediction market price as a probability: why the mechanism works, what the number does and does not measure, and how to use it without being ruled by it.
Why a 70-cent YES isn't a 70% win: decoding prediction market liquidity
A 70-cent YES only reads as a 70 percent chance when the order book behind it is deep, tight and recent; here is how spread, depth, volume and stale trades bend the number, and what to check before trusting it.
What are prediction markets, really?
A plain-English explanation of prediction markets: how contracts work, where prices come from, why they're different from sports betting, and what the academic research actually says about their accuracy.
How Kalshi works: the CFTC-regulated US event exchange
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange for event contracts. Here's how signing up, funding, placing orders, and settlement actually work, plus what they list and what they can't.
What 'implied probability' actually means
A contract trading at 63¢ YES implies a 63% probability. But implied and actual aren't the same, here's what the number means, what it ignores, and how to use it without getting fooled.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: the practical differences
Both are prediction markets. One is US-regulated and dollar-based; the other is crypto-settled and geofenced from the US. Here's how they actually differ for traders and researchers.
How NOAA weather models feed prediction market pricing
NOAA publishes ensemble weather forecasts that power most weather prediction markets. Here's what the models predict, how the market reacts, and where we find the biggest disagreements.