PicksByOdds
Same question, two exchanges · 134 verified pairs

Kalshi vs. Polymarket price gaps

Every row is one question that both exchanges are trading right now, with each side's live bid and ask. Most pairs agree to within a point. The ones that do not are at the top.

Where the books cross

On 52 of 134 shared questions the highest bid on one exchange is above the lowest ask on the other. Each band runs from an exchange's bid to its ask. The green space between them is the locked gap.

  • Kalshi bid to ask
  • Polymarket bid to ask
  • Locked gap
  1. an NL West teamPro Baseball Championship: Winning league
    17.0¢213.6% a year · 35d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 51¢ and NO on Kalshi at 32¢. That is 83¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 16, 2026: 17.0¢ locked, 213.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  2. J.D. Vance2028 Republican presidential nominee
    5.4¢2.7% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 43¢ and NO on Polymarket at 51.6¢. That is 94.6¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 5.4¢ locked, 2.7% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  3. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    3.7¢1.9% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 14¢ and NO on Polymarket at 82.3¢. That is 96.3¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 3.7¢ locked, 1.9% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  4. François HollandeNext French presidential election winner
    3.6¢7.2% a year · 189d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 3.4¢ and NO on Kalshi at 93¢. That is 96.4¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 3.6¢ locked, 7.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  5. Seattle SeahawksNFC West Division Winner
    3.0¢11.5% a year · 98d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 19¢ and NO on Polymarket at 78¢. That is 97¢ for a $1 payout around Jan 18, 2027: 3.0¢ locked, 11.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  6. Chiang Wan-anTaipei mayoral election winner
    3.0¢23.5% a year · 48d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 63¢ and NO on Polymarket at 34¢. That is 97¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 29, 2026: 3.0¢ locked, 23.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  7. MonacoLigue 1 Champion
    2.7¢4.1% a year · 246d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 4.3¢ and NO on Kalshi at 93¢. That is 97.3¢ for a $1 payout around Jun 15, 2027: 2.7¢ locked, 4.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  8. Édouard PhilippeNext French presidential election winner
    2.0¢3.9% a year · 189d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 21¢ and NO on Polymarket at 77¢. That is 98¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 2.0¢ locked, 3.9% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  9. Olivia ChowToronto mayoral election winner
    2.0¢49.7% a year · 15d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 68¢ and NO on Polymarket at 30¢. That is 98¢ for a $1 payout around Oct 27, 2026: 2.0¢ locked, 49.7% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  10. Nashville SCMLS Eastern Conference Champion
    2.0¢12.2% a year · 61d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 57¢ and NO on Polymarket at 41¢. That is 98¢ for a $1 payout around Dec 12, 2026: 2.0¢ locked, 12.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  11. Marine Le PenNext French presidential election winner
    2.0¢3.9% a year · 189d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 40¢ and NO on Kalshi at 58¢. That is 98¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 2.0¢ locked, 3.9% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  12. Andy Beshear2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    1.6¢0.8% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 3.5¢ and NO on Kalshi at 94.9¢. That is 98.4¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.6¢ locked, 0.8% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  13. Gavin Newsom2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    1.4¢0.7% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 14¢ and NO on Polymarket at 84.6¢. That is 98.6¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.4¢ locked, 0.7% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  14. Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsAlaska Governor winner
    1.4¢22.5% a year · 23d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 77¢ and NO on Polymarket at 21.6¢. That is 98.6¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 4, 2026: 1.4¢ locked, 22.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  15. Ron DeSantis2028 Republican presidential nominee
    1.4¢0.7% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 2.5¢ and NO on Kalshi at 96.1¢. That is 98.6¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.4¢ locked, 0.7% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  16. Raphael Warnock2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    1.3¢0.6% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 1.3¢ and NO on Kalshi at 97.4¢. That is 98.7¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.3¢ locked, 0.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  17. Mark Kelly2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    1.3¢0.6% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 2.5¢ and NO on Kalshi at 96.2¢. That is 98.7¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.3¢ locked, 0.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  18. Los Angeles DodgersPro Baseball Champion
    1.2¢23.3% a year · 19d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 48¢ and NO on Kalshi at 50.8¢. That is 98.8¢ for a $1 payout around Oct 31, 2026: 1.2¢ locked, 23.3% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  19. Detroit Pistons2027 Pro Basketball Champion
    1.1¢1.5% a year · 262d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 2¢ and NO on Polymarket at 96.9¢. That is 98.9¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 1.1¢ locked, 1.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  20. Bernie Sanders2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    1.1¢0.5% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 0.5¢ and NO on Polymarket at 98.4¢. That is 98.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.1¢ locked, 0.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  21. Brian Kemp2028 Republican presidential nominee
    1.1¢0.5% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.5¢. That is 98.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.1¢ locked, 0.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  22. Manchester CityEnglish Premier League Champion
    1.0¢1.6% a year · 230d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 20¢ and NO on Kalshi at 79¢. That is 99¢ for a $1 payout around May 30, 2027: 1.0¢ locked, 1.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  23. ArsenalEnglish Premier League Champion
    1.0¢1.6% a year · 230d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 61¢ and NO on Polymarket at 38¢. That is 99¢ for a $1 payout around May 30, 2027: 1.0¢ locked, 1.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  24. David LisnardNext French presidential election winner
    0.9¢1.8% a year · 189d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 14.1¢ and NO on Kalshi at 85¢. That is 99.1¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.9¢ locked, 1.8% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  25. Chicago Bears2027 Pro Football Champion
    0.9¢1.9% a year · 171d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 3.1¢ and NO on Kalshi at 96¢. That is 99.1¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 1, 2027: 0.9¢ locked, 1.9% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  26. Kamala Harris2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    0.9¢0.4% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 6.5¢ and NO on Kalshi at 92.6¢. That is 99.1¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.9¢ locked, 0.4% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  27. NapoliSerie A Champion
    0.8¢1.3% a year · 230d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 2.2¢ and NO on Kalshi at 97¢. That is 99.2¢ for a $1 payout around May 30, 2027: 0.8¢ locked, 1.3% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  28. Jordan BardellaNext French presidential election winner
    0.8¢1.6% a year · 189d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.6¢. That is 99.2¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.8¢ locked, 1.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  29. Cleveland GuardiansPro Baseball Champion
    0.6¢11.6% a year · 19d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 10¢ and NO on Kalshi at 89.4¢. That is 99.4¢ for a $1 payout around Oct 31, 2026: 0.6¢ locked, 11.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  30. Tampa Bay RaysPro Baseball Champion
    0.6¢11.6% a year · 19d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 21¢ and NO on Polymarket at 78.4¢. That is 99.4¢ for a $1 payout around Oct 31, 2026: 0.6¢ locked, 11.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  31. Ro Khanna2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    0.5¢0.2% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 1.3¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.2¢. That is 99.5¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.5¢ locked, 0.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  32. Donald Trump2028 Republican presidential nominee
    0.4¢0.2% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 2.1¢ and NO on Kalshi at 97.5¢. That is 99.6¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.4¢ locked, 0.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  33. Baltimore Ravens2027 Pro Football Champion
    0.3¢0.6% a year · 171d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 6.7¢ and NO on Kalshi at 93¢. That is 99.7¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 1, 2027: 0.3¢ locked, 0.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  34. Toronto Raptors2027 Pro Basketball Champion
    0.3¢0.4% a year · 262d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 3¢ and NO on Polymarket at 96.7¢. That is 99.7¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 0.3¢ locked, 0.4% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  35. Xavier BecerraCalifornia Governor winner
    0.3¢4.8% a year · 23d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 95.9¢ and NO on Kalshi at 3.8¢. That is 99.7¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 4, 2026: 0.3¢ locked, 4.8% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  36. Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    0.3¢0.1% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 0.2¢ and NO on Polymarket at 99.5¢. That is 99.7¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.3¢ locked, 0.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  37. Sarah KnafoNext French presidential election winner
    0.3¢0.6% a year · 189d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 1¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.7¢. That is 99.7¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.3¢ locked, 0.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  38. Josh Hawley2028 Republican presidential nominee
    0.3¢0.1% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99.3¢. That is 99.7¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.3¢ locked, 0.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  39. Orlando Magic2027 Pro Basketball Champion
    0.2¢0.3% a year · 262d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 0.2¢ locked, 0.3% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  40. Steve HiltonCalifornia Governor winner
    0.2¢3.2% a year · 23d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 4.1¢ and NO on Polymarket at 95.7¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 4, 2026: 0.2¢ locked, 3.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  41. Christine LagardeNext French presidential election winner
    0.2¢0.4% a year · 189d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.2¢ locked, 0.4% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  42. Jon Ossoff2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    0.2¢0.1% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 15.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 84¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.2¢ locked, 0.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  43. Denver Nuggets2027 Pro Basketball Champion
    0.2¢0.3% a year · 262d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 3¢ and NO on Polymarket at 96.8¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 0.2¢ locked, 0.3% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  44. Tucker Carlson2028 Republican presidential nominee
    0.2¢0.1% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 2.8¢ and NO on Polymarket at 97¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.2¢ locked, 0.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  45. Bruno RetailleauNext French presidential election winner
    0.2¢0.4% a year · 189d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 1.1¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.7¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.2¢ locked, 0.4% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  46. Roy Cooper2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    0.2¢0.1% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99.5¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.2¢ locked, 0.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  47. Houston Rockets2027 Pro Basketball Champion
    0.1¢0.1% a year · 262d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 2¢ and NO on Polymarket at 97.9¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 0.1¢ locked, 0.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  48. Gabriel AttalNext French presidential election winner
    0.1¢0.2% a year · 189d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 1.9¢ and NO on Polymarket at 98¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.1¢ locked, 0.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  49. Dominique de VillepinNext French presidential election winner
    0.1¢0.2% a year · 189d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99.3¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.1¢ locked, 0.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  50. Ted Cruz2028 Republican presidential nominee
    0.1¢0.0% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 2.2¢ and NO on Polymarket at 97.7¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.1¢ locked, 0.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  51. Vivek Ramaswamy2028 Republican presidential nominee
    0.1¢0.0% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99.6¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.1¢ locked, 0.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  52. Stephen A. Smith2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    0.1¢0.0% a year · 758d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99.7¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.1¢ locked, 0.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

OutcomeKalshi bid / askPolymarket bid / askMidpoint gapLocked gap
an NL West team
Pro Baseball Championship: Winning league · Kalshi · Polymarket
 68¢ / 72¢ 44.0¢ / 51.0¢ 22.5pp 17.0¢
213.6% a year, 35 days
J.D. Vance
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 42¢ / 43¢ 48.4¢ / 48.5¢ 5.9pp 5.4¢
2.7% a year, 758 days
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 13¢ / 14¢ 17.7¢ / 17.8¢ 4.2pp 3.7¢
1.9% a year, 758 days
François Hollande
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 7¢ / 8¢ 3.3¢ / 3.4¢ 4.2pp 3.6¢
7.2% a year, 189 days
Seattle Seahawks
NFC West Division Winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 18¢ / 19¢ 22.0¢ / 26.0¢ 5.5pp 3.0¢
11.5% a year, 98 days
Chiang Wan-an
Taipei mayoral election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 61¢ / 63¢ 66.0¢ / 67.0¢ 4.5pp 3.0¢
23.5% a year, 48 days
Monaco
Ligue 1 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 7¢ / 9¢ 4.2¢ / 4.3¢ 3.8pp 2.7¢
4.1% a year, 246 days
Édouard Philippe
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 20¢ / 21¢ 23.0¢ / 24.0¢ 3.0pp 2.0¢
3.9% a year, 189 days
Olivia Chow
Toronto mayoral election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 67¢ / 68¢ 70.0¢ / 71.0¢ 3.0pp 2.0¢
49.7% a year, 15 days
Nashville SC
MLS Eastern Conference Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 56¢ / 57¢ 59.0¢ / 60.0¢ 3.0pp 2.0¢
12.2% a year, 61 days
Marine Le Pen
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 42¢ / 43¢ 39.9¢ / 40.0¢ 2.5pp 2.0¢
3.9% a year, 189 days
Andy Beshear
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 5¢ / 5¢ 3.4¢ / 3.5¢ 1.7pp 1.6¢
0.8% a year, 758 days
Gavin Newsom
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 13¢ / 14¢ 15.4¢ / 15.5¢ 1.9pp 1.4¢
0.7% a year, 758 days
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Alaska Governor winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 76¢ / 77¢ 78.4¢ / 78.5¢ 1.9pp 1.4¢
22.5% a year, 23 days
Ron DeSantis
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 4¢ / 4¢ 2.4¢ / 2.5¢ 1.6pp 1.4¢
0.7% a year, 758 days
Raphael Warnock
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 3¢ 1.2¢ / 1.3¢ 1.4pp 1.3¢
0.6% a year, 758 days
Mark Kelly
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 4¢ / 4¢ 2.4¢ / 2.5¢ 1.4pp 1.3¢
0.6% a year, 758 days
Los Angeles Dodgers
Pro Baseball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 49¢ / 49¢ 45.0¢ / 48.0¢ 2.8pp 1.2¢
23.3% a year, 19 days
Detroit Pistons
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 3.1¢ / 3.2¢ 1.7pp 1.1¢
1.5% a year, 262 days
Bernie Sanders
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 1.6¢ / 2.3¢ 1.5pp 1.1¢
0.5% a year, 758 days
Brian Kemp
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 2¢ 0.3¢ / 0.4¢ 1.2pp 1.1¢
0.5% a year, 758 days
Manchester City
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 21¢ / 22¢ 19.0¢ / 20.0¢ 2.0pp 1.0¢
1.6% a year, 230 days
Arsenal
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 60¢ / 61¢ 62.0¢ / 63.0¢ 2.0pp 1.0¢
1.6% a year, 230 days
David Lisnard
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 15¢ / 16¢ 14.0¢ / 14.1¢ 1.4pp 0.9¢
1.8% a year, 189 days
Chicago Bears
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 4¢ / 5¢ 3.0¢ / 3.1¢ 1.4pp 0.9¢
1.9% a year, 171 days
Kamala Harris
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 7¢ / 8¢ 6.1¢ / 6.5¢ 1.2pp 0.9¢
0.4% a year, 758 days
Napoli
Serie A Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 5¢ 1.7¢ / 2.2¢ 2.1pp 0.8¢
1.3% a year, 230 days
Jordan Bardella
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 0.5¢ / 0.6¢ 0.9pp 0.8¢
1.6% a year, 189 days
Cleveland Guardians
Pro Baseball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 11¢ / 11¢ 7.6¢ / 10.0¢ 1.9pp 0.6¢
11.6% a year, 19 days
Tampa Bay Rays
Pro Baseball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 21¢ / 21¢ 21.6¢ / 23.0¢ 1.4pp 0.6¢
11.6% a year, 19 days
Ro Khanna
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 2¢ 1.2¢ / 1.3¢ 0.6pp 0.5¢
0.2% a year, 758 days
Donald Trump
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 3¢ 2.0¢ / 2.1¢ 0.5pp 0.4¢
0.2% a year, 758 days
Baltimore Ravens
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 7¢ / 8¢ 6.6¢ / 6.7¢ 0.9pp 0.3¢
0.6% a year, 171 days
Toronto Raptors
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 3¢ 3.3¢ / 3.4¢ 0.9pp 0.3¢
0.4% a year, 262 days
Xavier Becerra
California Governor winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 96¢ / 97¢ 95.6¢ / 95.9¢ 0.7pp 0.3¢
4.8% a year, 23 days
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.5¢ / 1.0¢ 0.6pp 0.3¢
0.1% a year, 758 days
Sarah Knafo
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 1¢ 0.9¢ / 1.0¢ 0.4pp 0.3¢
0.6% a year, 189 days
Josh Hawley
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 1¢ 0.3¢ / 0.4¢ 0.4pp 0.3¢
0.1% a year, 758 days
Orlando Magic
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 0.7¢ / 0.8¢ 0.8pp 0.2¢
0.3% a year, 262 days
Steve Hilton
California Governor winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 4¢ 4.3¢ / 4.5¢ 0.8pp 0.2¢
3.2% a year, 23 days
Christine Lagarde
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 0.5¢ / 0.8¢ 0.8pp 0.2¢
0.4% a year, 189 days
Jon Ossoff
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 16¢ / 17¢ 15.7¢ / 15.8¢ 0.8pp 0.2¢
0.1% a year, 758 days
Denver Nuggets
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 3¢ 3.2¢ / 3.3¢ 0.8pp 0.2¢
0.3% a year, 262 days
Tucker Carlson
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 3¢ 3.0¢ / 3.1¢ 0.4pp 0.2¢
0.1% a year, 758 days
Bruno Retailleau
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 1¢ 1.0¢ / 1.1¢ 0.3pp 0.2¢
0.4% a year, 189 days
Roy Cooper
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.2¢ / 0.3¢ 0.3pp 0.2¢
0.1% a year, 758 days
Houston Rockets
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 2.1¢ / 2.2¢ 0.6pp 0.1¢
0.1% a year, 262 days
Gabriel Attal
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 2¢ 2.0¢ / 2.1¢ 0.2pp 0.1¢
0.2% a year, 189 days
Dominique de Villepin
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 1¢ 0.5¢ / 0.6¢ 0.2pp 0.1¢
0.2% a year, 189 days
Ted Cruz
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 2¢ 2.3¢ / 2.4¢ 0.2pp 0.1¢
0.0% a year, 758 days
Vivek Ramaswamy
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.2¢ / 0.3¢ 0.2pp 0.1¢
0.0% a year, 758 days
Stephen A. Smith
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.2pp 0.1¢
0.0% a year, 758 days
Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC North Division Winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 8¢ / 10¢ 10.0¢ / 12.0¢ 2.0pp none
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 11¢ / 12¢ 10.0¢ / 11.0¢ 1.0pp none
Paris FC
Ligue 1 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 1.0¢ / 2.1¢ 1.0pp none
Los Angeles Rams
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 11¢ / 12¢ 12.0¢ / 13.0¢ 1.0pp none
Buffalo Bills
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 10¢ / 11¢ 11.0¢ / 12.0¢ 1.0pp none
Harry Kane
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 65¢ / 66¢ 66.0¢ / 66.1¢ 0.6pp none
Manchester United
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 1.0¢ / 1.2¢ 0.6pp none
Rodri
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 1.0¢ / 1.1¢ 0.5pp none
François Ruffin
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.1pp none
Sébastien Lecornu
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.2¢ / 0.3¢ 0.1pp none
Thomas Massie
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 1¢ 0.8¢ / 0.9¢ 0.1pp none
Phil Murphy
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.1pp none
LeBron James
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.1pp none
Jared Polis
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.1pp none
New England Patriots
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 4¢ 3.9¢ / 5.1¢ 1.0pp none
Kylian Mbappé
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 3¢ 2.0¢ / 2.1¢ 0.5pp none
Minnesota Vikings
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 4¢ 3.0¢ / 3.1¢ 0.5pp none
Detroit Lions
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 4¢ 3.0¢ / 3.1¢ 0.5pp none
Golden State Warriors
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 1.0¢ / 1.1¢ 0.5pp none
Philadelphia Eagles
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 1.9¢ / 2.1¢ 0.5pp none
Pete Buttigieg
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 5¢ / 5¢ 5.0¢ / 5.2¢ 0.1pp none
Ivanka Trump
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 1¢ 1.0¢ / 1.1¢ 0.1pp none
Zohran Mamdani
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.0pp none
Lionel Messi
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 3¢ 2.1¢ / 2.2¢ 0.4pp none
Erling Haaland
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Jacksonville Jaguars
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 6¢ / 7¢ 6.1¢ / 6.2¢ 0.4pp none
Ipswich Town
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Coventry City
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Sunderland
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Nottingham Forest
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Fulham
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Everton
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Crystal Palace
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Bournemouth
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Carolina Panthers
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.8¢ / 0.9¢ 0.4pp none
Minnesota Timberwolves
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 5¢ / 6¢ 5.1¢ / 5.2¢ 0.4pp none
Hunter Biden
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.2¢ / 0.5¢ 0.0pp none
Éric Zemmour
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.4¢ / 0.5¢ 0.0pp none
Kareem Allam
Vancouver mayoral election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 2¢ 0.4¢ / 0.5¢ 0.6pp none
Liverpool
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 4¢ / 5¢ 4.0¢ / 4.3¢ 0.4pp none
Las Vegas Raiders
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.7¢ / 1.0¢ 0.4pp none
Green Bay Packers
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 1.7¢ / 1.8¢ 0.3pp none
Cincinnati Bengals
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 4¢ 3.7¢ / 3.9¢ 0.3pp none
Indiana Pacers
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 1.7¢ / 1.9¢ 0.3pp none
Chris Van Hollen
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.2¢ / 0.3¢ 0.2pp none
Ousmane Dembélé
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.2¢ / 0.3¢ 0.2pp none
Newcastle United
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.2¢ / 0.3¢ 0.2pp none
New York Giants
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.6¢ / 0.7¢ 0.2pp none
Dallas Cowboys
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 3¢ 2.3¢ / 2.4¢ 0.2pp none
Houston Texans
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 1.6¢ / 1.7¢ 0.2pp none
Denver Broncos
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 4¢ 3.2¢ / 3.4¢ 0.2pp none
Los Angeles Chargers
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.3¢ / 0.4¢ 0.1pp none
Michael Olise
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.3¢ / 0.4¢ 0.1pp none
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.3¢ / 0.4¢ 0.1pp none
Tottenham
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.3¢ / 0.4¢ 0.1pp none
Aston Villa
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.3¢ / 0.4¢ 0.1pp none
Cleveland Cavaliers
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 3¢ 2.4¢ / 2.5¢ 0.1pp none
New Orleans Saints
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.4¢ / 0.5¢ 0.0pp none
Cleveland Browns
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.4¢ / 0.5¢ 0.0pp none
Washington Commanders
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.5¢ / 0.6¢ 0.0pp none
Phoenix Suns
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.5¢ / 0.6¢ 0.0pp none
Arizona Cardinals
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.4¢ / 0.5¢ 0.0pp none
Charlotte Hornets
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.5¢ / 0.6¢ 0.0pp none
Atlanta Falcons
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 1.4¢ / 2.0¢ 0.2pp none
Lamine Yamal
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 28¢ / 30¢ 28.2¢ / 28.7¢ 0.6pp none
San Francisco 49ers
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 10¢ / 11¢ 10.2¢ / 11.3¢ 0.2pp none
Chelsea
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 5¢ / 7¢ 6.1¢ / 6.3¢ 0.2pp none
San Jose Earthquakes
MLS Cup Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 3¢ 1.8¢ / 2.9¢ 0.2pp none

How to read the two gap columns

Midpoint gap is the distance between the middle of each exchange's bid and ask. It tells you how much the two crowds disagree, not what you could trade.

Locked gap is what is left if you buy YES where it is cheaper and NO on the other exchange, paying each ask. It is the highest bid on one exchange minus the lowest ask on the other. When that is above zero, the two positions together cost less than the $1 one of them must pay. 52 of today's 134 pairs show one. The yearly figure beside it spreads that gain over the days until the question resolves, because money tied up until 2028 is not the same as money back next month. Both figures are before exchange fees, and a gap this size can vanish before a second order fills.

How a pair gets on this page

We only pair markets whose identity we can check. Polymarket has to ask whether a named person or team will win a named contest. Kalshi has to list a who-wins event for that same contest and year, with exactly one open market carrying that name. Events about margins, vote share, who advances or who will run are rejected even when the wording looks close. We also drop pairs where either bid and ask are more than 10 cents apart, where the contest ends within three days, or where the two midpoints differ by more than 25 points, since a gap that large almost always means two different questions.

This replaces an earlier version of this page that matched markets by similar wording and listed pairs that were not the same event.

This is not trading advice. The two exchanges can word their resolution rules differently for the same contest, so read both rule pages before acting. Check which exchanges you are allowed to use where you live.

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