Every day Kalshi traders price the day's high temperature in New York (Central Park) and Los Angeles (LAX) into two-degree buckets. Every morning the National Weather Service publishes a forecast high for the same stations. This page lines them up, then keeps score once the day settles.
Updated 9:03 PM ET, Oct 11 · prices refresh four times daily · settlements checked every build
| Date | City | NWS forecast | Market favourite | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | New York | 70° miss | 68 to 69° 99¢ hit | 68 to 69° | Market |
| 2026-10-10 | Los Angeles | 74° miss | 76 or above° 99¢ hit | 76 or above° | Market |
| 2026-10-09 | New York | 71° miss | 69 to 70° 99¢ hit | 69 to 70° | Market |
| 2026-10-09 | Los Angeles | 80° miss | 78 or below° 99¢ hit | 78 or below° | Market |
| 2026-10-08 | New York | 75° miss | 72 to 73° 99¢ hit | 72 to 73° | Market |
| 2026-10-08 | Los Angeles | 85° miss | 82 or below° 99¢ hit | 82 or below° | Market |
| 2026-10-07 | New York | 67° miss | 65 or below° 99¢ hit | 65 or below° | Market |
| 2026-10-07 | Los Angeles | 87° miss | 85 to 86° 99¢ hit | 85 to 86° | Market |
| 2026-10-06 | New York | 63° miss | 62 or below° 99¢ hit | 62 or below° | Market |
| 2026-10-06 | Los Angeles | 93° miss | 94 to 95° 99¢ hit | 94 to 95° | Market |
| 2026-10-05 | New York | 69° hit | 68 to 69° 99¢ hit | 68 to 69° | tie |
| 2026-10-05 | Los Angeles | 96° miss | 101 to 102° 99¢ hit | 101 to 102° | Market |
| 2026-10-04 | New York | 65° miss | 62 or below° 99¢ hit | 62 or below° | Market |
| 2026-10-04 | Los Angeles | 96° miss | 99 or above° 99¢ hit | 99 or above° | Market |
| 2026-10-03 | New York | 71° hit | 70 to 71° 99¢ hit | 70 to 71° | tie |
| 2026-10-03 | Los Angeles | 91° miss | 99 or above° 99¢ hit | 99 or above° | Market |
| 2026-10-02 | New York | 83° hit | 83 to 84° 99¢ hit | 83 to 84° | tie |
| 2026-10-02 | Los Angeles | 88° hit | 87 to 88° 99¢ hit | 87 to 88° | tie |
| 2026-10-01 | New York | 76° hit | 75 to 76° 99¢ hit | 75 to 76° | tie |
| 2026-10-01 | Los Angeles | 81° miss | 78 or below° 99¢ hit | 78 or below° | Market |
| 2026-09-30 | New York | 75° hit | 74 to 75° 99¢ hit | 74 to 75° | tie |
| 2026-09-30 | Los Angeles | 80° hit | 80 to 81° 99¢ hit | 80 to 81° | tie |
| 2026-09-29 | New York | 71° miss | 69 to 70° 99¢ hit | 69 to 70° | Market |
| 2026-09-29 | Los Angeles | 82° hit | 82 to 83° 99¢ hit | 82 to 83° | tie |
| 2026-09-28 | New York | 65° miss | 63 or below° 98¢ hit | 63 or below° | Market |
| 2026-09-28 | Los Angeles | 76° hit | 76 to 77° 99¢ hit | 76 to 77° | tie |
| 2026-09-27 | New York | 65° miss | 64 or below° 98¢ hit | 64 or below° | Market |
| 2026-09-27 | Los Angeles | 79° miss | 84 or above° 99¢ hit | 84 or above° | Market |
| 2026-09-26 | New York | 62° miss | 61 or below° 91¢ hit | 61 or below° | Market |
| 2026-09-26 | Los Angeles | 80° miss | 81 to 82° 99¢ hit | 81 to 82° | Market |
The buckets. Kalshi's daily series splits the day's high into two-degree bands with an open-ended band at each end. The market favourite is the band with the highest YES price at the time of the build; the crowd mean weights every band's midpoint by its price.
The forecast. The NWS point forecast for the same station (Central Park for New York, LAX for Los Angeles), taken from the first daytime period of the day and recorded once, in the morning, so it cannot be revised after the fact. The market side before 2026-08-23 comes from our own price archive, the first snapshot of each day; the forecast side starts the day this page launched, and the head-to-head counts only days with both.
Settlement. When Kalshi settles the series, the band that resolved YES is the actual high. A hit means the favourite (or the forecast) landed in that band; Brier is (1 minus the price the market gave the band that came true) squared, averaged, lower is better. Source: Kalshi public market data, api.weather.gov. Market pages: weather markets.