Longshots · 50 markets

Contracts trading under 10¢

Low-probability events priced under a dime. If they resolve YES, a 5¢ contract pays 20x. Most won't , that's why they're longshots. The market is pricing them that way for a reason.

Market	Platform	YES	Volume	Implied %
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Polymarket	1¢	$66,459,046	1.4%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Polymarket	1¢	$52,900,629	1.9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$43,873,048	2.1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Polymarket	3¢	$41,010,319	3.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Polymarket	5¢	$27,119,302	5.5%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$24,875,609	2.9%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Polymarket	5¢	$23,934,052	5.1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$18,606,641	1.6%
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Polymarket	2¢	$14,759,937	2.9%
Trump out as President before 2027?	Polymarket	3¢	$12,485,577	3.7%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$11,779,800	2.8%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$10,924,535	3.0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$8,474,502	4.0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	2¢	$7,961,679	2.4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	8¢	$6,735,851	8.5%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	8¢	$6,530,482	8.0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$5,239,215	3.0%
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Polymarket	2¢	$4,454,901	2.1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	6¢	$4,289,841	6.5%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Polymarket	2¢	$3,527,058	2.1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$3,493,255	2.2%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$3,492,963	1.8%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Polymarket	6¢	$3,110,658	6.5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	7¢	$3,107,049	7.8%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$2,866,182	3.0%
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Polymarket	1¢	$2,825,843	1.1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$2,668,173	3.2%
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Polymarket	6¢	$2,436,379	6.0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	4¢	$2,277,893	4.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	7¢	$2,182,868	7.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$1,986,936	3.8%
Human moon landing in 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$1,975,653	1.3%
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Polymarket	9¢	$1,408,229	9.5%
New pandemic in 2026?	Polymarket	5¢	$1,216,432	5.0%
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	5¢	$1,201,640	5.1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	Polymarket	2¢	$1,129,100	2.6%
Will BP be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$1,064,522	4.0%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$1,057,074	3.9%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$1,050,810	3.3%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Polymarket	4¢	$1,050,006	4.5%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$992,983	4.5%
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Polymarket	1¢	$964,299	1.1%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Polymarket	6¢	$891,122	6.2%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Polymarket	1¢	$826,238	1.2%
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$783,519	2.1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$138,840	1.8%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$113,036	2.5%
Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Oct 12, 2026: 64° to 65°	Kalshi	2¢	$2,329	2.0%
Will the maximum temperature be >71° on Oct 12, 2026: 72° or above	Kalshi	5¢	$2,197	5.0%
Will the maximum temperature be <84° on Oct 12, 2026: 83° or below	Kalshi	2¢	$729	2.0%

Markets priced in single digits are usually pricing tail risk: events that are possible but unlikely. The crowd has decided these contracts are worth only a few cents on the dollar.

Historically, longshot markets on prediction exchanges are slightly overpriced compared to true probability , a well-known bias called the "favorite-longshot" effect. But overpriced doesn't mean zero: some longshots do resolve YES and pay out 10-20x.