Match markets, priced by the crowd.
Every open football and tennis match on Limitless, a crypto prediction exchange, with the Polymarket price beside it when the same match trades there. Each price is the cost of a Yes contract on that result, in cents, so a 68¢ favorite is a 68 percent crowd estimate. Sorted by kickoff, Eastern time.
Updated 9:03 PM ET, Oct 11 · prices refresh with each site build
Kalshi football against the sportsbooks
For every NFL and college football game on Kalshi in the next four days, we compare what a Yes contract costs on Kalshi, with Kalshi's fee included, against the sportsbooks' consensus with their margin removed and against Polymarket's price for the same game. A double-checked pick is a side that Kalshi sells for less than both of them.
No double-checked picks right now. Across the 5 games we could match, the typical Kalshi side costs 2.3¢ more than the sportsbooks once its fee is added, so Kalshi's football prices are fair to slightly expensive this week. The closest calls are below.
Closest to a discount
| Side | Kalshi cost | Sportsbooks | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee to beat DelawareCollege football, Tue Oct 13, 7 PM ET | Kalshi 45.7¢ | Sportsbooks 44.5¢8 books | Polymarket not listed | -1.2¢ |
| Baltimore to beat AtlantaNFL, Sun Oct 11, 8:23 PM ET | Kalshi 38.6¢ | Sportsbooks 37.0¢5 books | Polymarket not listed | -1.6¢ |
| Florida International to beat Jacksonville St.College football, Tue Oct 13, 8 PM ET | Kalshi 44.7¢ | Sportsbooks 43.1¢8 books | Polymarket not listed | -1.6¢ |
| Kennesaw St. to beat Missouri St.College football, Wed Oct 14, 7:30 PM ET | Kalshi 61.7¢ | Sportsbooks 59.8¢8 books | Polymarket not listed | -1.9¢ |
| Sam Houston to beat Western KentuckyCollege football, Wed Oct 14, 8 PM ET | Kalshi 49.8¢ | Sportsbooks 47.5¢6 books | Polymarket not listed | -2.3¢ |
| Atlanta to beat BaltimoreNFL, Sun Oct 11, 8:23 PM ET | Kalshi 65.6¢ | Sportsbooks 63.0¢5 books | Polymarket not listed | -2.6¢ |
| Jacksonville St. to beat Florida InternationalCollege football, Tue Oct 13, 8 PM ET | Kalshi 59.7¢ | Sportsbooks 56.9¢8 books | Polymarket not listed | -2.9¢ |
| Delaware to beat Middle TennesseeCollege football, Tue Oct 13, 7 PM ET | Kalshi 58.7¢ | Sportsbooks 55.5¢8 books | Polymarket not listed | -3.2¢ |
Difference is the sportsbooks' price minus Kalshi's cost, so a positive number means Kalshi sells that side for less. Kalshi's fee per contract is 7 percent of the price times one minus the price, and a limit order at the bid usually costs less than the numbers shown. Sportsbook prices are averaged across US books and were fetched for this build.
Biggest movers today
How far each favorite's Yes price has moved since the first build of the day. A line that moves this much is the crowd changing its mind, usually on news, a lineup, or money arriving.
| Match | This morning | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Vrba vs Daniel SiniakovDaniel Siniakov to win | 73¢5:03 PM ET, Oct 11 | 65¢ | ▼8¢ |
| Sebastian Gima vs Pedro Vives MarcosPedro Vives Marcos to win | 78¢5:03 PM ET, Oct 11 | 73¢ | ▼5¢ |
| Pedro Rodenas vs Svyatoslav GulinSvyatoslav Gulin to win | 57¢5:03 PM ET, Oct 11 | 59¢ | ▲3¢ |
Right now the two venues price all 8 shared matches within a cent of each other. When they drift apart, the gap shows under the Polymarket bar and the biggest gaps are listed here.
WTA Wuhan Open Tennis
| Kickoff | Match | Limitless, Yes price by result | Polymarket, same results | Favorite | Traded | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 11, 10:00 PM ET | Anna Kalinskaya vs Shuai ZhangWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Anna Kalinskaya 70¢▲1¢ | $14 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Sun Oct 11, 11:00 PM ET | Anhelina Kalinina vs Sonay KartalWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Sonay Kartal 61¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Sun Oct 11, 11:00 PM ET | Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Leylah FernandezWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Ekaterina Alexandrova 53¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 12:30 AM ET | Clara Tauson vs Marie BouzkovaWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Marie Bouzkova 68¢ | $31 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 12:30 AM ET | Iva Jovic vs Mia PohankovaWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Iva Jovic 84¢ | $240 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 12:30 AM ET | Janice Tjen vs Aoi ItoWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Janice Tjen 72¢▲1¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 2:00 AM ET | Jasmine Paolini vs Sara BejlekWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Sara Bejlek 53¢▲1¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 2:00 AM ET | Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Magdalena FrechWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Magdalena Frech 57¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 2:00 AM ET | Maria Sakkari vs Donna VekicWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Maria Sakkari 60¢▲1¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 3:30 AM ET | Caty McNally vs Yulia StarodubtsevaWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Caty McNally 62¢▼1¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
ATP Shanghai Masters Tennis
| Kickoff | Match | Limitless, Yes price by result | Polymarket, same results | Favorite | Traded | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 12, 12:00 AM ET | Learner Tien vs Casper RuudATP Shanghai - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Learner Tien 59¢▲1¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 12:00 AM ET | Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-AliassimeATP Shanghai - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Felix Auger-Aliassime 75¢▲1¢ | $20 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 1:30 AM ET | Jiri Lehecka vs Rafael JodarATP Shanghai - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Jiri Lehecka 58¢ | $23 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 1:30 AM ET | Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Taylor FritzATP Shanghai - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Taylor Fritz 60¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 3:00 AM ET | Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor SvrcinaATP Shanghai - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Daniil Medvedev 86¢ | $1 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 4:30 AM ET | Arthur Fils vs Botic van de ZandschulpATP Shanghai - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Arthur Fils 79¢ | $5 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 6:00 AM ET | Zizou Bergs vs Carlos AlcarazATP Shanghai - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Carlos Alcaraz 92¢ | $12 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
ATP Olbia Challenger Tennis
| Kickoff | Match | Limitless, Yes price by result | Polymarket, same results | Favorite | Traded | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 12, 4:00 AM ET | Jakub Vrba vs Daniel SiniakovCatania - Final | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Daniel Siniakov 65¢▼8¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 4:00 AM ET | Pedro Rodenas vs Svyatoslav GulinCatania - Final | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Svyatoslav Gulin 59¢▲3¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 4:00 AM ET | Sebastian Gima vs Pedro Vives MarcosCatania - Final | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Pedro Vives Marcos 73¢▼5¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 5:10 AM ET | Alex Marti Pujolras vs Kai WehneltCatania - Final | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Alex Marti Pujolras 53¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 5:10 AM ET | Pavel Lagutin vs Oleksandr OvcharenkoCatania - Final | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Pavel Lagutin 66¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 5:10 AM ET | Yanaki Milev vs Federico Iannaccone | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Federico Iannaccone 52¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 7:00 AM ET | Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Sandro KoppCatania - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Sandro Kopp 53¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 7:00 AM ET | Sean Cuenin vs Izan Almazan ValienteCatania - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Sean Cuenin 60¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
How the crowd has done
Every match that has settled since this board went up, with the favorite's price at kickoff and what actually happened. A crowd that is well calibrated wins about as often as its prices say it should: favorites priced 70¢ should win about seven times in ten.
| Match | Favorite at kickoff | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace vs Nottingham ForestEnglish Premier League, Sun Oct 11, 9:00 AM ET | Crystal Palace 57¢ | Crystal Palace, favorite |
| Crystal Palace vs Nottingham ForestEnglish Premier League, Sun Oct 11, 9:00 AM ET | Nottingham Forest 67¢ | Crystal Palace, upset |
| Hull City vs EvertonEnglish Premier League, Sun Oct 11, 9:00 AM ET | Hull City 52¢ | Hull City, favorite |
| Alexander Bublik vs Tomas MachacATP Shanghai Masters | Alexander Bublik 81¢ | Alexander Bublik, favorite |
| Lucrezia Stefanini vs Polina IatcenkoWTA Samsun Open | Lucrezia Stefanini 68¢ | Lucrezia Stefanini, favorite |
| Elise Mertens vs Iga SwiatekWTA China Open | Elise Mertens 99¢ | Elise Mertens, favorite |
| Yi Zhou vs Lorenzo MusettiATP Shanghai Masters | Yi Zhou 50¢ | Yi Zhou, favorite |
| Eduardo Ribeiro vs Lautaro MidonATP Antofagasta Challenger | Lautaro Midon 98¢ | Lautaro Midon, favorite |
| Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Joao Lucas Da SilvaATP Antofagasta Challenger | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 60¢ | Joao Lucas Da Silva, upset |
| Moreirense vs GIL VicentePortugal Primeira Liga | GIL Vicente 40¢ | GIL Vicente, favorite |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Werder BremenBundesliga | Borussia Dortmund 71¢ | Draw, upset |
| Katarina Zavatska vs Renata ZarazuaWTA Suzhou Open | Renata Zarazua 93¢ | Renata Zarazua, favorite |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Elvina KalievaWTA Suzhou Open | Aliaksandra Sasnovich 63¢ | Elvina Kalieva, upset |
| Adrian Mannarino vs Flavio CobolliATP Shanghai Masters | Flavio Cobolli 64¢ | Adrian Mannarino, upset |
| Arthur Gea vs Ugo HumbertATP Shanghai Masters | Arthur Gea 52¢ | Arthur Gea, favorite |
| Karen Khachanov vs Arthur FeryATP Shanghai Masters | Karen Khachanov 77¢ | Karen Khachanov, favorite |
| Miomir Kecmanovic vs Jakub MensikATP Shanghai Masters | Jakub Mensik 90¢ | Jakub Mensik, favorite |
| Francisco Cerundolo vs Roman SafiullinATP Shanghai Masters | Francisco Cerundolo 67¢ | Francisco Cerundolo, favorite |
| Ayla Aksu vs Fiona CrawleyWTA Samsun Open | Fiona Crawley 86¢ | Ayla Aksu, upset |
| Novak Djokovic vs Hubert HurkaczATP Shanghai Masters | Novak Djokovic 60¢ | Hubert Hurkacz, upset |
How to read this board
The Polymarket column shows the same results priced by Polymarket's traders when that match is listed there too; "Limitless +7¢" under it means Limitless prices the favorite seven cents higher than Polymarket does. The small arrow beside a favorite is how far its price moved since the previous build, and the movers table at the top ranks the day's biggest swings. "book 104¢" under a bar is what that match's Yes prices add up to: the 4¢ over 100 is the market maker's margin, so a lower book total is a cheaper match to trade. Switch prices to decimal or American odds above the board if that is how you read them: a 68¢ Yes price is 1.47 decimal and -213 American.
Each bar splits a match into its possible results. The width of a segment is the current Yes price for that result, which the market treats as its probability. Football has three results, so the three segments usually add up to a little under a dollar, and the gap is the spread traders pay. Tennis has two. The favorite is simply the result with the highest price right now; it moves with every trade, so it is a snapshot of the crowd at build time rather than a prediction from us.
Limitless is a crypto prediction exchange: you trade with a connected wallet and contracts settle on-chain. It is a partner of PicksByOdds. Links on this page carry our referral code once it is active, and PicksByOdds may earn a reward when you sign up through them, at no cost to you. Prices are shown as information. PicksByOdds does not give betting advice, and the other markets we track live on Kalshi and Polymarket.