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Biggest price moves across Kalshi and Polymarket

The Kalshi and Polymarket contracts whose implied probability moved the most since we started recording each one. Sorted by absolute price change. A large mover is a signal that new information, or a liquidity gap, has repriced the market.

Top movers

Biggest price changes across the book

Market Market price Volume Move Dir
Will the maximum temperature be 74-75° on Oct 11, 2026: 74° to 75° 99¢ $91,646 +79.0pp ↑
Ethereum price at Oct 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT: $2,970 to 3,009.99 2¢ $0 -68.0pp ↓
Ethereum price at Oct 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT: $2,930 to 2,969.99 2¢ $0 -68.0pp ↓
Ethereum price at Oct 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT: $2,890 to 2,929.99 2¢ $0 -68.0pp ↓
Ethereum price at Oct 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT: $2,850 to 2,889.99 2¢ $0 -68.0pp ↓
Ethereum price at Oct 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT: $2,810 to 2,849.99 3¢ $0 -67.0pp ↓
Ethereum price at Oct 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT: $2,770 to 2,809.99 3¢ $0 -67.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following 1¢ $3 -48.5pp ↓
Will the maximum temperature be 72-73° on Oct 11, 2026: 72° to 73° 1¢ $85,512 -48.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $89,500 to 89,749.99 1¢ $0 -44.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following 35¢ $4 -41.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following 10¢ $0 -39.5pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following 2¢ $122 -39.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following 13¢ $5 -36.5pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $91,250 to 91,499.99 1¢ $0 -36.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following 15¢ $0 -34.5pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $89,250 to 89,499.99 1¢ $0 -34.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $91,000 to 91,249.99 1¢ $0 -33.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following 83¢ $1 +33.0pp ↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following 81¢ $1 +31.0pp ↑
Will the maximum temperature be <62° on Oct 11, 2026: 61° or below 99¢ $50,894 +30.0pp ↑
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $91,500 to 91,749.99 1¢ $0 -30.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following 21¢ $4 -29.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $89,000 to 89,249.99 1¢ $0 -28.0pp ↓
Will the maximum temperature be 62-63° on Oct 11, 2026: 62° to 63° 1¢ $40,315 -22.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following 25¢ $5,596 +21.0pp ↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following 30¢ $0 -20.0pp ↓
Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Oct 11, 2026: 70° to 71° 1¢ $159,784 -20.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $87,750 to 87,999.99 1¢ $64 -20.0pp ↓
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? 65¢ $5,526,122 +19.0pp ↑
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $89,750 to 89,999.99 1¢ $22 -19.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $92,000 to 92,249.99 1¢ $0 -19.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $91,750 to 91,999.99 1¢ $0 -19.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $90,750 to 90,999.99 1¢ $0 -19.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $90,500 to 90,749.99 1¢ $0 -19.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $90,250 to 90,499.99 1¢ $0 -19.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $90,000 to 90,249.99 1¢ $0 -19.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $88,750 to 88,999.99 1¢ $0 -19.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $88,500 to 88,749.99 1¢ $0 -19.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $92,250 or above 2¢ $0 -18.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $88,250 to 88,499.99 2¢ $0 -18.0pp ↓
Bitcoin price range on Oct 12, 2026: $88,000 to 88,249.99 2¢ $0 -18.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following 55¢ $5,294 -18.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following 32¢ $0 -17.5pp ↓
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? 28¢ $3,953,237 -16.8pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following 33¢ $0 -16.5pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following 35¢ $0 -14.5pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following 38¢ $0 -11.5pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following 10¢ $16 -11.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following 39¢ $0 -10.5pp ↓
Methodology

How the move is calculated

Each row on this page is a live contract with at least two prices in our archive. The move column is the latest price minus the first price we recorded for that contract, in percentage points.

A move of +30pp means the implied probability rose 30 points over the window we have tracked. A large move can mean new information reached the market. It can also mean a thin market where one order shifted the price, so check the volume column before reading much into it.

This page is not trading advice. Treat the move column as a starting point for your own research, not a recommendation.

Data sources

  • Market prices: the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs.
  • Price history: our own archive of each refresh, which is why newer contracts have shorter windows.
  • Refresh: several times a day.

For weather contracts, see how the market's favorite compares with the National Weather Service forecast on market vs meteorologist.

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