Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been pub
Reading the odds on this market
At 14.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 14.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 7.
$10 on YES buys about 69 contracts that pay $68.97 if it happens; $10 on NO at 85.5¢ buys about 11.7 that pay $11.70 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 17.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 82 days until January 2, 2027; that works out to about 100.8% a year.
Over the last 9 daily readings the YES price moved down 4.0 points, trading between 14.5¢ and 19.5¢.
$14,614,346 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $627,869 still riding on the outcome, making it number 34 by volume of the 214 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 14¢ means the market is pricing in a 14.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($14,614,346) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($627,869) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 95¢ | $8,846,832 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 83¢ | $8,516,882 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 16¢ | $7,230,975 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been pub
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 82 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 14¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 86¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 14¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 14.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $14,614,346 in total traded volume and $627,869 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.