Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?
What resolves this contract
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.00% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Reading the odds on this market
At 25.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 25.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 4.
$10 on YES buys about 40 contracts that pay $40.00 if it happens; $10 on NO at 75.0¢ buys about 13.3 that pay $13.33 if it does not.
Over the last 8 daily readings the YES price moved up 21.0 points, trading between 4.0¢ and 25.0¢.
$5,596 has traded on it on Kalshi, with $5,440 still riding on the outcome, making it number 165 by volume of the 214 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 25¢ means the market is pricing in a 25.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($5,596) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($5,440) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 14¢ | $14,614,346 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 95¢ | $8,846,832 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 83¢ | $8,516,882 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.00% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-03-17, 157 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 25¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 75¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 25¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 25.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $5,596 in total traded volume and $5,440 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.