Will the S&P 500 be between 7850 and 7874.9999 on Oct 16, 2026 at 4pm EDT: 7,850 to 7,874.9999
What resolves this contract
If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on October 16, 2026 is between 7850-7874.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.
Reading the odds on this market
At 8.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 8.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 12.
$10 on YES buys about 118 contracts that pay $117.65 if it happens; $10 on NO at 91.5¢ buys about 10.9 that pay $10.93 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 9.3% if it wins, with the money locked up for 5 days until October 17, 2026; that works out to about 65402.8% a year.
Over the last 3 daily readings the YES price moved down 3.0 points, trading between 8.5¢ and 11.5¢.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 8¢ means the market is pricing in a 8.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($0) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 14¢ | $14,614,346 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 95¢ | $8,846,832 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 83¢ | $8,516,882 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on October 16, 2026 is between 7850-7874.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-16, 5 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 8¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 92¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 8¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 8.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $0 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.