Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026: 30,000
What resolves this contract
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 30000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Reading the odds on this market
At 59.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 59.0% chance this happens, roughly 1.4 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 17 contracts that pay $16.95 if it happens; $10 on NO at 41.0¢ buys about 24.4 that pay $24.39 if it does not.
Over the last 29 daily readings the YES price moved down 2.0 points, trading between 65.0¢ and 69.0¢.
$27,314 has traded on it on Kalshi, with $21,062 still riding on the outcome, making it number 156 by volume of the 214 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 59¢ means the market is pricing in a 59.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($27,314) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($21,062) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 14¢ | $14,614,346 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 95¢ | $8,846,832 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 83¢ | $8,516,882 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 30000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-06, 26 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 59¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 41¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 59¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 59.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $27,314 in total traded volume and $21,062 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.